A humongous asteroid called by the name “Apophis” is set to buzz past earth on April 13th, 2029 and it’s going to come very, very close to our planet. I know that since its years from now, people are going to shrug this off and act like it’s no big deal, especially since scientists say it’s not going to collide with earth, but there’s reason to be concerned.
First off, Apophis is going to come 10 times closer to our planet than the Moon as it flies by. Sure, scientists have thankfully said the chances of it hitting us are zero, but the bad news is, we’ve lost sight of it right now and can’t be sure that this huge rock is still on that trajectory. Concerning, right? It should be. This planet has been smashed by gigantic meteors plenty of times over the years it has existed. One of these rocks took out the dinosaurs, regardless of when you believe that took place.
If an asteroid this size hits us, the results would be beyond cataclysmic. World ending would probably be a more appropriate description.
Many of us have not worried about this particular asteroid because we have all trusted that the scientists and experts knew what they were talking about. NASA unequivocally stated over and over that there is no way Apophis is going to collide with earth for at least a hundred years.
Asteroid 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth object (NEO) estimated to be about 1,100 feet (335 meters) across. When it was discovered in 2004, Apophis was identified as one of the most hazardous asteroids that could impact Earth. But that impact assessment changed after astronomers tracked Apophis, and its orbit became better determined. A radar observation campaign in March 2021, combined with precise orbit analysis, allowed astronomers to conclude that there is no risk of Apophis impacting our planet for at least a century.
In fact, a planetary scientist who works for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has been saying the exact same thing.
“Apophis is in the category of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) — asteroids with orbits that bring them very close to Earth now and for centuries in the future,” said Richard Binzel, a planetary scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “What makes Apophis the poster child for potentially hazardous asteroids is that it will make the closest known approach to Earth of any large asteroid this decade.
“But the three most important things about Apophis are: Apophis will miss the Earth. Apophis will miss the Earth. Apophis will miss the Earth,” he told Space.com via email.
So why should we not just wholesale buy into what these scientists are selling? For starters, this thing is coming extremely close to earth, “less than one-tenth the distance to the Moon” as it zips on by.
It will be a very close pass. Apophis will come within about 32,000 kilometers (20,000 miles) of Earth — less than one-tenth the distance to the Moon. The asteroid will fly below the altitude of some satellites, but should arrive on a trajectory that makes any collision highly unlikely.
That might not see all that close to us here planetside, but it’s let’s just say it’s a little close for comfort. However, the big reason to be worried is that this sucker cannot actually be seen right now. In fact, we haven’t been able to see Apophis since the middle of 2021 and won’t catch a glimpse of it until 2027.
There is another problem. “Apophis is in the daytime sky and unobservable from mid-2021 to 2027,” Paul Wiegert, meaning any change in its trajectory will go unseen until just two years before April 12, 2029. However, he adds that a single observation during 2027 would be necessary to determine whether the asteroid threatened “an impending Earth impact.”
If there’s even just a tiny change in the asteroid’s trajectory it could slam right into us. And we won’t have any idea if there has been any changes until 2027. Our scientists are simply assuming everything is still going as it was before they lost sight of Apophis. I’m not comfortable with that, how about you?
Another disturbing fact is that earth’s gravity is going to have an impact on the asteroid by causing small tremors.
The researchers discovered that two physical processes — triggered by Earth’s gravitational tugs — will likely sculpt Apophis’ surface during its 2029 encounter. One is tremors that will probably begin an hour before Apophis reaches its closest point to Earth and continue for a short while after. The tremors’ strength is difficult to estimate, Ballouz said. However, “Apophis’ gravity is about 250,000 times smaller than Earth’s,” he added. “So, we think that events of much smaller magnitude could plausibly shake things up on its surface.”
Is it possible the tremors could alter the path of the asteroid and put it in line for collision with earth? We don’t know. Our planet’s gravity could also change how it is “tumbling” through the sky.
The other process that could “refresh” Apophis’ surface is a change in its tumbling. Tumbling occurs because the asteroid doesn’t rotate on a fixed axis or time period; instead, it tumbles through space like a badly thrown football. An unrelated 2023 study showed that Earth’s gravity would cause the asteroid to rotate either more quickly or more slowly depending on its orientation during the 2029 approach. The new simulations confirmed this finding. They also revealed that the changes in Apophis’ tumbling will cause the sloping faces of surface rocks to destabilize, potentially triggering landslides in extreme cases.
When astronomer Neil deGrasse Tyson was recently asked about what it would look like to be slammed by an asteroid, he said that a tsunami could wipe out the whole west coast of our nation.
Famous astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson, in an episode of his podcast ‘Cosmic Queries’ discussed a threat posed by giant asteroids heading towards the Earth. In conversation with science author and cosmochemist Natalie Starkey, Tyson warned that a 370-metre wide near-Earth asteroid Apophis 99942 might spark a major tsunami that can wipe out the entire west coast of North America if it manages to hit the Earth. Tyson went on to explain how an impact in the ocean would trigger a tsunami, “If it goes through the centre, it will plunge down into the Pacific Ocean to a depth of three miles, at which point it explodes, caveating the Pacific in a hole that’s three miles wide. The 5 km-high wall collapses, falling back against itself and rising high into the atmosphere before falling back down to the ocean, generating tsunami waves.”
“So now you make a cavity a second time. This cycle takes about 50 seconds, you can calculate it,” Tyson added. “All the artificial stuff, all the houses, factories, they get churned into the force that sandblasts the entire west coast of North America clean.”
Let’s hope this sucker is still on trajectory to miss our world. If not, disasters like famine, disease and mass extinction of both animal and plant life will decimate the human population.
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