The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed they conducted a series of war simulations that demonstrate the unbelievably shocking consequences that could come about as the result of a military conflict between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait. Studies like this are important because we’re experiencing the highest tensions between our country and China in many years. The whole world seems poised to explode into a third global conflict like a bag of popcorn in the microwave.
The scenarios revealed massive losses on both sides of such a conflict with our country losing close to 400 aircraft, 20 warships, and two aircraft carriers in just the first three weeks of fighting. Imagine how many lives would be lost along with the vehicles. Horrifying, right?
Part of the purpose of the simulations is to place emphasis on how critical rapid response from U.S. and Japan would be in the skirmish. If there were delay of say, two weeks, China would have an opportunity to consolidate a foothold in Taiwan, which would make defense efforts useless.
“China, despite its massive investments in military capabilities, also faces severe consequences. Simulations predict the loss of most of its amphibious fleet, over 50 warships, and hundreds of aircraft, alongside tens of thousands of ground troops. These setbacks would undermine China’s leadership and jeopardize its broader strategic goals,” Prophecy News Watch reported.
2023 North University of China Simulation: This Chinese war game envisioned a hypersonic missile assault on a U.S. carrier group. Using 24 hypersonic missiles in three waves, the scenario depicted the sinking of the USS Gerald Ford, showcasing China’s capability to neutralize a U.S. fleet rapidly under certain conditions.
2023 CSIS Taiwan Strait Simulation: This exercise highlighted the costs of repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Even in scenarios where Taiwan held firm, U.S. and Japanese forces experienced massive losses, including hundreds of aircraft and dozens of ships. The war games emphasized the critical role of Japan and Taiwan’s ability to counter Chinese beachheads.
2022 RAND Corporation Drone Swarm Study: In collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, this simulation demonstrated the potential for drone swarms to enhance U.S. defense capabilities. By overwhelming enemy radar and extending the reach of manned aircraft, these autonomous systems could shift the tactical balance but not eliminate the high risks involved in a Taiwan conflict.
The people of China have been urged to prepare for war under the leadership of their president, Xi Jinping, who has emphasized the critical nature of military and civilian readiness. Xi also revealed he has a target date of 2027 for military modernization, which is in line with current speculation about moves being planed against Taiwan in the future. Tons of state propaganda has been produced that supports the acceleration of defense capabilities.
“China’s military industrial complex is operating at a scale unmatched by the U.S., producing naval vessels at 230 times the American rate. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is now the largest in the world by ship count and continues to grow rapidly, with advancements in destroyers, submarines, and aircraft carriers designed to dominate the Indo-Pacific region,” the report went on to say.
China has increased its capabilities to carry out devastating cyber attacks on a nation’s infrastructure, which has the end goal in mind of disrupting logistics and communication networks. Essentially, they want to cause chaos in the adversary’s operations during an armed conflict.
“Anti-Satellite Weapons: China’s anti-satellite program includes kinetic weapons, electronic jammers, and directed-energy systems capable of blinding or destroying U.S. satellites. These technologies would disrupt critical U.S. surveillance and communication networks, giving China a strategic advantage,” PNW stated.
And then there’s the drone swarms. A 2023 simulation done at the North University of China demonstrated how effective drone swarms could be when used in naval combat. The drones overwhelm U.S. interceptor missiles and help protect bigger threats from detection.
The war games and intelligence analyses reveal the urgent need for the U.S. and its allies to adapt their strategies: Rapid Deployment: The U.S. must act immediately in a Taiwan conflict, as delays would enable China to entrench its forces. Bolstered Alliances: Strengthening military cooperation with Japan is crucial, as its bases would serve as a critical operational hub. South Korea’s involvement, though uncertain, could also provide strategic advantages​ Weapon Stockpiles: The U.S. must increase production of anti-ship and coastal defense missiles. Current stockpiles are insufficient for a prolonged conflict​
These kind of simulations are key to helping our government craft responses to worst-case scenarios so we can avoid disaster. Let’s hope we never need to actually use them.
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